A friend recently made me aware of the incoming cold front. It looks interesting, if not strange. Why is there a low pushing right in front of the cold front? That wind pattern doesn’t look right on the Navy GFS model linked below. A fun south swell could come up in front of the cold front. The winds are currently being forecast around the 25 knot range making it one of our stronger cold fronts. We’re still almost a week out. It’s currently looking like Friday afternoon, then Sunday morning. There’s still a lot to figure out as it gets closer. You can expect something fun this weekend at least.
Category Archives: Surf Forecasts
The Big One Is Coming
That big swell is looking gnarly. They often suck when they say the swell is going to be big or good. I’m feeling lazy. If you want to dial this one in, go check out the links below, and monitor real time weather stations as it get closer to verify. Have a Merry Christmas everyone.
Monday Swell Coming 12/19/2020
I looked at the model just now. The big Christmas front is not actually going to be the next fun swell. That little low is showing up through the Navy’s model as something that will actually be dropping down to the edge of the gulf. It’s going to ride across the edge of the northern gulf. It almost looks like it will be in there. This one looks good. I see the winds wrapping around the low in the northern gulf. Sunday in the middle of the night some nice west swell could be spinning up. Longer period west swell could come out of this thing. Monday mid-morning or afternoon I would expect to start seeing that swell. It looks like a good setup. It’s just out of reach for me. Have fun guys.
Is Anything Coming? 42036 Is Offline!
Are the republicans just cheap bastards? Are the democrats trying to make someone look bad and make it look like someone sucks? 42036 is the only buoy out there in the northeast gulf that would give us a decent indication of what’s going out there in the Gulf of Mexico the night before the swell gets here. I used to be able to tell you, oh ya 4 foot sweet with a short period 6 second interval is on its way. I can’t do that tonight. That would be especially valuable if I wanted to know if I should get up in the morning, since I’m not particularly a morning person. Who’s the asshole that’s responsible for a little tiny piece of electric equipment out in the gulf? Why can’t these people do their job? Why can’t I have my 036 buoy? These satellites might be so high tech that no one in charge feels like they need these buoys, but if they are being greedy bastards and simply choosing not to disseminate, what good does that do the people who actually want to use this stuff. It’s been offline for a long time now. Someone needs to get their shit together.
Surf Forecast 12/16/2020
The model output was modified again. The Wed/Thursday system is now showing the full cold front status Northwest wind. By that I mean moderately strong northwest winds get pulled across the gulf. We get the full northwest push. The model is showing a replica scenario of the last mini system, ie. stronger wing backing off with lighter winds on top of the swell. Thursday morning looks like it could be fun with a lighter wind on the beach. The seas forecast is still calling for pretty strong NW winds Thursday morning. Watch the weather for a fun morning sesh Thursday morning. Hopefully you guys get to have some fun.
Weather Forecast 12/15/2020
The last surf prediction pretty much locked in. I’ll take another look tomorrow. We’re in that gradually cooling water temperature trend that lasts until somewhere between the end of December to February depending on the year. If the cold fronts shut off after that Xmas front, we might get one or two or three big ones after that. For the most part it’s a short cooling trend only to start warming back up quick. It varies from year to year though. Last years winter didn’t last very long. The next 7 days has our coldest day after that windy cold front day on Thurday, Friday with a high around 64. Most of the week the temperatures are looking nice around mid day. There will be some mix of overcast around the start of next week with what could be another cold front. Mostly nice weather with some cooler days this week.
Weather Forecast 12/13/2020
The surf forecast is looking bleak. I’m not feeling very enthusiastic about the upcoming two swells. The Monday/Tuesday thing is pretty much non-existent. They are showing a little pulse on the GFS wind model, groundswell type of pulse. Those kind of things I feel like they are usually just screwing with me. The next front looks stronger. Last time I checked it, it looked like a mostly north, northwest swell. Those swells can be super cold, small and funky like the last one. The latest run shows it coming more from the northwest, potentially some decent west in it. Waist high sounds about right. On this run the best time to surf is projected as Thusday morning. Take every piece of weather projection with a grain of salt.