The surf forecast is looking bleak. I’m not feeling very enthusiastic about the upcoming two swells. The Monday/Tuesday thing is pretty much non-existent. They are showing a little pulse on the GFS wind model, groundswell type of pulse. Those kind of things I feel like they are usually just screwing with me. The next front looks stronger. Last time I checked it, it looked like a mostly north, northwest swell. Those swells can be super cold, small and funky like the last one. The latest run shows it coming more from the northwest, potentially some decent west in it. Waist high sounds about right. On this run the best time to surf is projected as Thusday morning. Take every piece of weather projection with a grain of salt.
Category Archives: Surf Forecasts
Weather Forecast 12.11.2020
I saw Gulfster calling a cold front for this weekend or Monday. That one was originally supposed to push through. Its now supposed to go backdoor. The front stalls. We get nothing from that one. Something could be happening later in the week, now around Wednesday and Thursday. That one looks weak as well. It could be a wave maker; it could be nothing. Time will tell.
Surf Forecast: 5/06/2020-5/11/2020
Is Winter Over?
I’m opening the website back up for discussion. Florida winters are very strange. In a sense, there is no winter. Cold fronts strong enough to bring down the temps to near freezing only come through a handful of times, then abruptly stop. It’s not always clear when that end is. We are guaranteed to get more little cold fronts, but as temperatures begin to heat up again, and the days of January pass, I’m starting to feel the hints of spring. I start to wonder, was that it? Is winter over? What do you readers think? Leave a comment.
Surf Forecasting: A Discussion
The purpose of this thread is to start a discussion about knowing when and where to surf. There are many surfers and skimboarders who are new to the sport. Many probably don’t know a lot of the things you know about the sport. Share with them your knowledge. Leave a comment below. Hopefully we can start a multifaceted, multisided, lighthearted discussion about the good and the bad in surf forecasting and surf reports we love.
I’m posing the question to you, “What is the best way to get your surf forecast?”
I’m aware of many sources of information about the surf forecast. Let me tell you a little bit about my experiences with these sources. I guess I’ll start with my favorite surf forecasting sources for the area. When I want to know what the future holds I will often go on Aurasurf.com, he’s my favorite forecaster. For many years he did a surf forecast that was far and above the most accurate Sand Key surf forecast, calling Sand Key “the best spots.” I also like Swellinfo.com. That website shows you a very detailed chart with wind direction and size on a timeline six days in advance. Micah usually forecasts one, two, or even three weeks in advance. The only drawback with Micah’s site is I feel like he just says things to get you to go to his website more. Now, after years of trying to use the Navy’s weather model to forecast surf, I see how the weather models, ie. the feds and their “reports”, can mess with you. So I have to give both of those sources credit for doing a good job, Aurasurf and Swellinfo.
Swellinfo was often contrasted with Magicseaweed.com. It was like Magicseaweed was the Burger King to Mcdonalds. They are so similar as competitors and yet so different. I only looked at Magic a couple times. It wasn’t for me. I couldn’t get on board with the Surfline like forecast where instead of a body scale (head high, knee high, etc.) they were showing the surf on a swell feet scale. The problem with that is that a three foot swell in Hawaii is head high where a three foot swell on the gulf doesn’t even break. So Magicseaweed and Surfline were out, not for me.
Gulfster had a surf forecast, still does, now with a east coast surf forecast, and a gulf coast fishing forecast. The fishing forecast may even have been inspired by yours truly SurfingtheGulf after I started posting sweet fishing content and even doing those boring, far too vague fishing forecasts. I never really used Gulfster as a surf forecast, or any kind of forecast for that matter. Now that I think about it, Maybe when I first started surfing waaaay back when. Only until I heard about Micah’s website. Gulfster is really just a place to get pictures people take after a good swell. I was always excited to show people on Facebook how cool I was. It was the reason I got sucked into the chaotic Sand Key surf scene.
I mentioned Facebook a minute ago. Facebook, Instagram, and other social media outlets have never been a source of information about the surf, not a good surf forecast or a good surf report. People are just not dedicated enough to update their accounts when the surf’s up, or to regularly and accurately forecast. What we’re talking about is work. So it really is more of a commercial activity to surf forecast and do a surf report. I do my Surf’s Up Surf Report, but I can only do it because I do it when I go surfing. Otherwise, I just couldn’t do it.
Now, while I’m on the topic of a surf report let me just tell you that a surf forecast is never accurate 100 percent of the time. There will always be those times when the forecaster has been misinformed or when a drastic change in the weather pattern leads to a sudden change in the forecast. A day before the surf there are often changes made to the forecast for the next day. The day of, I like to open up a cam and maybe look at the nearshore Egmont buoy. Those tend to be the best source of information on the surf day. There are cameras up and down the coast. My favorite is definitely the opal sands camera. It gives me the overview of Clearwater beach. While I don’t surf Clearwater beach usually, there are two beachs right next to Clearwater Beach. The other two beaches are the two primary surf spots in the area, Honeymoon Island State Park and Sand Key. I like to use that camera because in contrast to cameras further south, because there are often noticeable differences between here and Pete and most definately from here to Bradenton or Venice. Often it’s the same. Often it’s different. So, I like to use a source close to home. I think most people are the same when it comes to their day of surf forecast. You can also check out the new Egmont surf buoy. It does have little bit of surf report value. It gives you wave direction, probably it’s most endearing quality.
I’m not going to write too much. I’m going to leave the rest up to you. Put a comment in the box below. Write as much as you can to reply to the question, “What is the best way to get your surf forecast?”
Keep Playing
That series of three fun cold fronts was probably the conclusion to the springsuit wetsuit season. We’re fully into the “summer” now. As I write this I’m cleaning the sand out of my car. There’s also a solid summer rainstorm pouring down outside the garage. The loudest bolt of lighting just rang through the area seconds after it lit up the overcast sky. There are still some fun things to do as the weather heats up and the gulf flattens out. The full moon is on Sunday and larger afternoon outgoing tides are still the trend with large incomings in the mornings. Morning sunrises and sunsets are usually a great time to go fishing. It’s also a good time to stay inside and enjoy the air conditioning. Watch for the potential to have a good tropical storm or hurricane at the start of hurricane season around June 1st.
Easter Swell 2019
First, let’s take a look at the next three days of tides for Clearwater Beach, which should be a good guide for most of Pinellas County. I see morning incoming tides with big outgoing swings in the afternoons. That means the morning incoming tides are going to be your best tides. Continue reading Easter Swell 2019