You may remember back at the beginning of April, the Klotzback report was published summarizing the expectations for the upcoming hurricane season.  Those finding suggested the season would be a slightly below-average hurricane season.  In the month predecing the report the tropical Atlantic had seen considerable cooling, and as you may know, water temperature in the Atlantic is an important variable for hurricane activity.

Well, in a more recent report by NOAA a different frequency is being suggested for the upcoming season, a more encouraging forecast for people who enjoy the more active seasons.  This season is likely to be closer to normal, or even above normal.  The forecast is based on above average sea surface temperatures in the hurricane “main development region”, and near average or weaker than average vertical wind shear. From June 1st to November 1st the Atlantic (includes gulf) is likely to have:

• 11-17 Named Storms, including Tropical Storm Arlene in April
• 5-9 Hurricanes
• 2-4 Major Hurricanes