Tag Archives: hurricane outlook

The Tropical Wave Over Florida

There’s a tropical wave moving past the state tonight.  NOAA is calling it a surface trough.  This area of weather is kicking up substantial storms, but it’s just a big area of tropical moisture.  Just a little east wind and high rain chances for the coming days. Storms will be active in the afternoons.

Unfortunately, no surf in our long term forecast. There should be something springing up in the near future.  Approaching August statistics tell us the chances of a large wave producing storm is far more likely than previous months. August and September has a big spike in tropical activity every year. The gulf or east coast is sure to see fun surf in the coming months.

Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico

The pattern over by Africa seems to have changed, just slightly, within the past couple days.  The storms moving off the peninsula Continue reading Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Outlook 2016

The Colorado State University, Klotzbach hurricane outlook report has been published. The models have been run and the stats are in. Go take a look. Link below.

The document is somewhat dense, but still interesting if you can scan for the relevant information. The beginning sections of the document are sort of like a review of the methods for generating this report. The report starts to get interesting around Section 5 (ENSO) and 6 (Current Atlantic Basin Conditions). Section 5 suggests the outlook regarding El Nino vs La Nina is somewhat unsure at this early stage in the season. Section 6 says the north Atlantic is somewhat cool because of the north Atlantic oscillation, and it’s unsure at this point if the cooling will trend downward toward tropical waters. Overall the forecast numbers are about average. Section 7 reviews the season’s adjusted estimates, which is the primary output of this report.

Hurricane Outlook 2016 Report