Phil Klotzbach and Michael Bell published their annual Hurricane season forecast on April 6th. The report tells us what to expect for the upcoming Atlantic basin hurricane season starting on June 1st. Through their comprehensive statistical modeling, a method that combines four different statistical models and uses hindsight verification, they generated a hurricane season output (the forecast) that’s considered the gold standard of hurricane forecasting. From their model they are able to tell us, with a reasonable degree of reliability, how much activity we’ll see during this hurricane season. As with most seasons and any statistical procedure, the impact of variable events like the heating of the Pacific (El Nino) presents some uncertainty. A strong El Nino could increase the likelihood of tropical activity. Currently, the equatorial Pacific is in the neutral El Nino state, and is expected to warm to a weak El Nino by the peak of the hurricane season. In the report Dr. Klotzbach suggests that because the tropical Atlantic has cooled considerably over the past month, and because the far north Atlantic is relatively cold, we can expect a below average hurricane season.
The numbers:
11 named storms
50 named storm days
4 hurricanes
16 hurricane days
2 major hurricanes
4 major hurricane days
And as you may know, it’s common for the gulf to get a solid little storm right at the beginning of the season, often in June! We may even get another epic swell like the one during Hurricane Hermine last September.
